OUTCOMES RUNS CALCULATORS : Please use these instructions if you have questions about using the Outcomes Runs Calculators I have provided. There are 3 calculators: 1. The first is a Team Calculator*, which can show the component parts of run-scoring from a team, season, or league using the data you enter. 2. The second is a Pitcher Calculator**, which can show how many runs a pitcher is actually responsible for based on the component parts of run-scoring. 3. The third is a Batter Calculator***, similar to the Pitcher Calculator. It shows how many runs a batter is actually responsible for. INSTRUCTIONS: 1. You will need to use data from a clearinghouse website that includes standard batting data, detailed pitching data (specifically, batting-against data), and standard fielding data. Baseball-Reference is an excellent site to use. 2a. For the Team Calculator, you will need the following data: *Total Bases, Hits, Doubles, Plate Appearances, At Bats, Walks, Sacrifice Flies, All Double Plays Batted Into (Box Score data, if unknown, use Grounded Into Double Play data), Home Runs, Opponent's Wild Pitches (Box Score data, if unknown use Bases Taken from Baserunning data) Strikeouts, Hit By Pitches, Picked Off (Baserunning data), Opponent's Balks (if unknown, leave blank), Stolen Bases, Opponent's Passed Balls (Baserunning data), Sacrifice Hits, Caught Stealing, Reached on Errors (Baserunning data) Triples, and Runs Scored. 2b. For the Pitcher Calculator, you will need the following data: **Total Bases Allowed, Hits Allowed, Doubles Allowed, Plate Appearances, At Bats, Walks Allowed, Sacrifice Flies Against, Grounded Into Double Plays Forced, Home Runs Allowed, Wild Pitches, Strikeouts, Hit Batsmen, Balks, Stolen Bases Allowed, Sacrifice Hits Against, Caught Stealing, Reached on Errors Against (Baserunning data) Triples Allowed, and Runs Allowed. 2c. For the Batter Calculator, you will need the following data: ***Total Bases, Hits, Doubles, Plate Appearances, At Bats, Walks, Sacrifice Flies, Grounded Into Double Plays, Home Runs, Strikeouts, Bases Taken (Baserunning data), Hit By Pitches, Picked Off, Stolen Bases, Sacrifice Hits, Caught Stealing, Reached on Errors (Baserunning data), Triples, and Runs Scored. 3. You will see two calculated scores. The first is called ORbet Outcomes Runs. It only applies to data for the 2022 season (see below for further explanation). The second is called Standard Outcomes Runs. It is all component parts' universal total run value (see below for further explanation). ACCURACY OF OUTCOMES RUNS CALCULATORS: You may be curious why I went to the trouble of designing and sharing these calculators. Yes, there are other calculators available on the market. None of those used a universal formula/algorithm to first tie their data to "actual" runs scored, nor did they attempt to consider all runs scored throughout baseball history. The Outcomes Runs algorithm is connected directly and substantially to ALL runs scored in ALL Major leagues in the United States since 1876 (including NLPB). It has also been tested on a sample of foreign leagues--where it continues to outperform ALL previous component-parts calculators in terms of accuracy and error. Specifically, a standard statistical measure referred to as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) shows Standard Outcomes Runs (sOR) has an average error of 11.16 runs/team/season. To compare sOR to other metrics, the Run Batted In (RBI) has an RMSE of 26.45 runs/team/season. Base Runs (BsR) has an RMSE of 40.13 runs/team/season. Estimated Runs Produced (ERP) has an RMSE of 42.80 runs/team/season. Extrapolated Runs (XR) has an RMSE of 42.89 runs/team/season. Runs Created technical (RCt) has an RMSE of 43.73 runs/team/season. If we look at baseball from 1876 to 1948, sOR has an RMSE of 12.63 runs/team/season, and that same error is 34.54 for RBIs, 53.81 for BsR, 55.21 for ERP, 61.71 for RCt, and 58.42 for XR. If we look at the second half of baseball from 1949 to 2021, sOR has an RMSE of 9.3 runs/team/season, and that same error is 5.0 for RBIs, 8.1 for BsR, 7.5 for ERP, 8.2 for RCt, and 7.4 for XR. The previous component-parts-run-scoring algorithms do not consider baseball's first half in their calculations. If you want to compare a team from before 1949 using BsR, ERP, RCt, or XR, your error rate would be almost twice as large as looking only at RBIs AND four times as large as using sOR. I appreciate accuracy and strive to achieve it. I designed the 2022 Outcomes Runs Betting Algorithm (ORbet 2022) using sOR as the base algorithm to identify the relative value of component parts compared to their universal or base value. The ORbet algorithm has an RMSE of 0.52 runs/team/season. Each component part of run-scoring has a base value that fluctuates based on its usage for the era observed. For example, stolen bases have a historical run value of 0.58. The run-value of a stolen base in 2022 is 0.06 because they do not correlate with runs scored in the modern game. Another example is wild pitches. The historical run value of a wild pitch is 0.08. The 2022 run value of a wild pitch is 0.49 because it closely correlates with runs scored in the modern game. (I would like to eventually provide era-specific calculators to coincide with the universal calculator. This allows us to analyze how each component part of run-scoring has been used throughout the game's history.) Whether you want historical accuracy or a precise tool to measure the modern game of baseball, the Standard Outcomes Runs Algorithm, and 2022 Outcomes Runs Betting Algorithm are orders of magnitude more accurate than anything ever made available to the public. Finally, you may wish to consider using Linear Weights or Weighted On-Base Average tools. These are good tools for looking only at a particular season and have strong correlations to runs scored for the season of the applied weights. However, they require annual adjustments. They were never intended to consider or assign a universal base value to run-scoring components. I cannot fathom telling the specific value of an in-game component-part event for a particular season without first sharing its universal base value. Chris Michaels