Welcome to another edition of Saber rattling. This isn’t late. I promise…
In my last article, I mentioned writing about ‘that annual pitching award’ during the World Series. My hope was for the series to build to a crescendo for the final two games in Houston, at which time I could wow you with my pithy observations. Spoiler alert; the series never made it that far. As a result, I decided to wait until the day the ‘pitching award’ was announced to publish this piece.
If you are wondering why I keep calling it that pitching award, I’ve consistently said I wouldn’t acknowledge the player it is named for because the player in question wasn’t good enough to warrant such an honor. There, I said it. I’ve also shown the data over my previous columns to support this declaration. Well, enough of that, I suppose; onto the fellas who deserve recognition for the annual pitcher of the year for the American and National leagues.
I want to clarify that I’m only analyzing pitchers who rank highest in their respective leagues by my metrics. Baseball is woefully inept at recognizing and incorporating the correct measures across the board.
The confirmed finalists are—for the AL—Gerrit Cole, Lance Lynn, and Robbie Ray; and—for the NL—Corbin Burnes, Max Scherzer, and Zack Wheeler. Some of these guys didn’t have quite the year that major media outlets are touting, but what can you expect when power brokers continue to use antiquated metrics that don’t correlate with runs scored? My list doesn’t include Cole (ranked 31st in ML in Runs Prevented Above Average), Ray (ranked 109th in RVAL), and Scherzer (ranked 8th). Sorry, Max. I love that you’re a midwestern kid. A few too many fellow aces ranked ahead of you.
The deserving pitching award candidates have one significant similarity to their MVP brethren. Those who are legitimately worthy make up a very short list. If you read my article about MVP candidates, you know I saw those as two-man races in each league. I see the pitching award as three-man contests and not much else.
Let’s start with the National League contestants. In reverse-order of their team’s respective overall records, my nominees are Corbin Burnes, Zack Wheeler, and Charlie Morton. I assure you there is NO other reason for listing them in this fashion (sarcasm). Rats. You’re onto my tricks.
Another not-so-secret revelation, the order listed above fairly reflects how each finalist should finish in the voting, were the gentleman from Atlanta to have made the official cut. Mr. Burnes—no, not that Mr. Burns—dominated batters this season. The last pitcher to rule the rest with this kind of stuff was Jacob deGrom in 2018.
2021 Burnesy didn’t quite live up to the magic of 2018, where Jacob unleashed fury over frightened batters. Still, Corbin was head and shoulders above the competition. In fact, the only fair race in the NL pitching department is which of our other contestants will place second.
The table I’ve created for you shows how each of my finalists fared in the nine categories that make up Pitcher Effectiveness Scores. As you can see, the only poor mark for CB is his unusually high BAbip. It suggests that he was so effective at getting batters out in other ways that an opponent’s only realistic possibility for success was to put the ball in play and forego the chance at a home run. The evidence supports this when you consider that Corbin allowed seven HRs in 657 plate appearances.
Again, the NL race is for silver. Both Wheeler and Morton have a solid case. Each bested the other in one or more critical categories. The two were neck-and-neck. They finished two and three respectively across the Majors in RVAL. Ultimately, both men had seasons to make their teams and fans proud. I favor Wheeler because his team wasn’t as good around him as the Braves were around Morton.
The American League presents an interesting if somewhat lackluster race when placed beside its NL counterpart. Two of my contestants don’t appear anywhere among the official finalists. Lance Lynn—the confirmed candidate—ranks third among my AL nominees. It means my claim here will remain entirely hypothetical. I’m not throwing shade at Lance either. He had a lovely season. But he wasn’t even the most effective pitcher on his own team. That honor goes to Carlos Rodon, who finished 7th in MLB in RVAL. The intriguing figure, though, is Emmanuel Clase of the Indians. (Do we still get to call them that?) In half the plate appearances of Rodon, Emmanuel had nearly the same runs prevented. No, I don’t think Clase would be an effective starter. I’m not telling you I think it should happen. What I believe is that when a reliever can produce the second-best RVAL in his respective league, he’s done something remarkable—picture peak Eric Gagne, circa 2003. Clase didn’t quite reach that level. He was still incredibly dominant. In fact, he led the Majors in allowing extra bases on 13.7% of hits. Talk about inducing weak contact…
You may have also noticed the AL pitchers ranked quite a bit lower than their NL opposites in Runs Prevented Above Average. Rodon was 7th, Clase was 10th, and Lynn was 13th. The Junior Circuit didn’t match the strength of NL hurlers. Ten of the top thirteen MLB mound men in RVAL were from the Senior Circuit. Like I said above, the American League was lackluster.
Now to my hot takes!
I’m sure you will share these stories with your grandchildren years from now. Take notes. You heard it here first. Corbin Burnes deserves to be the NL MVP and Cy Young winner (I can’t believe you got me to mention the award by name…). He had a higher RVAL than any Major League batter this season. Remember that RVAL is interchangeable between batters and pitchers, with the only difference being runs produced for batters and runs prevented for pitchers.
The juiciest meat I can toss your hungry eyes is Emmanuel Clase should have been among official CY finalists because he actually deserves the award over all other AL pitchers. Not only did EC outperform Burnes on a per-plate-appearance basis, but he also outperformed 2018 deGrom on the same metric. The man sizzled this year!
Well, there you have it. If I were king for a day, I’d reset the candidates for that pitching award. Corbin and Emmanuel would see their names etched into baseball lore. Generations would talk about how I provided clarity to the fuzziness of honoring greatness. Okay, maybe not that last bit. It might have been a bridge too far.
I hope you’ve enjoyed this column. I want to challenge your thinking about baseball statistics. Someday, my own research on the game will become outdated. Please feel free to spar with me about the ideas I’ve presented here—I enjoy the discussion because it challenges my thinking. I can be reached here on Baseball Almanac, and I’m on the social media (Facebook, Twitter). As always, this has been the World According to Chris. Thanks for tuning in.
